An AI Guide To AI

ChatGPT Fails To Observe Any Bias In China’s DeepSeek’s Analysis Of The Current Trade Wars

As the tariff war heats up under the new US administration, tensions and a sense of uncertainty are rising in the Geopolitical arena.

The introduction of new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could lead to significant economic disruptions, supply chain shifts, and geopolitical instability.

I have set out to compare the upstart Chinese AI that had rocked the financial world when released, DeepSeek, to ChatGPT by prompting the same question in order to assess the differences, similarities and bias between the competing LLMs.

The answers were uncannily similar, down to the structure of the response, prompting the question whether they are really such different models. I will publish the results and let you judge for yourselves.

I had expected that the Chinese AI would have a different ideological slant than the Yank one, especially on such a confrontational subject. However GPT found no significant bias or ideological differences between the two while comparing the two answers anonymously.

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Analysis of the trade wars between the US and Canada, Mexico and China: What are the possible consequences that could ensue with new trade tariffs originating from the US?

DS:

The trade wars initiated by the United States, particularly under the Trump administration, have had significant global economic repercussions. The imposition of new tariffs by the U.S. on Canada, Mexico, and China has led to a complex web of consequences, both intended and unintended. Below is an analysis of the trade wars with these countries and the potential consequences of new U.S. tariffs:

1. U.S.-Canada Trade Relations

  • Background: The U.S. and Canada share one of the largest bilateral trade relationships in the world, underpinned by the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), which replaced NAFTA in 2020. However, tensions arose when the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, citing national security concerns.
  • Consequences of New Tariffs:
    • Retaliatory Measures: Canada has historically responded to U.S. tariffs with proportional counter-tariffs on American goods, such as agricultural products and consumer goods.
    • Supply Chain Disruptions: Both countries are deeply integrated in industries like automotive manufacturing. Tariffs could disrupt these supply chains, increasing costs for businesses and consumers.
    • Economic Slowdown: Reduced trade between the two nations could lead to slower economic growth in both countries, particularly in export-dependent sectors.
    • Political Strain: Tariffs could strain diplomatic relations, undermining cooperation on other issues like defense and environmental policies.

2. U.S.-Mexico Trade Relations

  • Background: Mexico is a key trading partner for the U.S., particularly in manufacturing and agriculture. The USMCA has helped stabilize trade relations, but past U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods (e.g., steel, aluminum, and threats of auto tariffs) created friction.
  • Consequences of New Tariffs:
    • Increased Costs for U.S. Consumers: Many U.S. industries rely on Mexican imports. Tariffs would raise costs for American consumers and businesses.
    • Migration and Economic Stability: Economic instability in Mexico caused by reduced trade could exacerbate migration pressures at the U.S.-Mexico border.
    • Retaliation: Mexico could impose tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports, hurting American farmers.
    • Investment Uncertainty: Tariffs could deter cross-border investment, particularly in manufacturing and energy sectors.

3. U.S.-China Trade Relations

  • Background: The U.S.-China trade war, which began in 2018, involved tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods. The conflict was driven by U.S. concerns over trade deficits, intellectual property theft, and China’s state-led economic policies.
  • Consequences of New Tariffs:
    • Global Supply Chain Disruptions: China is a major hub in global supply chains. Tariffs could disrupt industries like electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, leading to higher costs and delays.
    • Inflation: Higher tariffs on Chinese goods could contribute to inflation in the U.S., as many consumer products are imported from China.
    • Retaliation: China could impose tariffs on U.S. exports, particularly agricultural products like soybeans and pork, harming American farmers.
    • Shift in Trade Alliances: China may deepen trade ties with other countries, such as those in the EU or Southeast Asia, reducing U.S. influence in global trade.
    • Technological Decoupling: The trade war has accelerated efforts by both countries to reduce dependence on each other in critical sectors like semiconductors and telecommunications.

Broader Global Consequences

  • Erosion of Multilateral Trade Systems: U.S. tariffs undermine the rules-based global trading system, particularly the World Trade Organization (WTO), and could lead to a rise in protectionism worldwide.
  • Economic Uncertainty: Tariffs create uncertainty for businesses, discouraging investment and slowing global economic growth.
  • Geopolitical Tensions: Trade wars can spill over into other areas of international relations, exacerbating geopolitical rivalries and reducing cooperation on global issues like climate change and security.
  • Impact on Developing Countries: Developing nations that rely on exports to the U.S. or are part of global supply chains could suffer collateral damage from reduced trade and investment.

Long-Term Implications

  • Reshoring and Diversification: U.S. tariffs may encourage companies to reshore production or diversify supply chains away from China and other targeted countries. However, this process is costly and time-consuming.
  • Shift in Global Economic Power: The trade wars could accelerate the shift of economic power away from the U.S. as other countries seek to reduce their reliance on American markets.
  • Domestic Political Fallout: In the U.S., tariffs could lead to political backlash from industries and consumers harmed by higher prices and reduced competitiveness.

Conclusion

The imposition of new U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would likely exacerbate existing tensions and create new economic challenges. While the intent may be to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, the broader consequences could include higher costs for consumers, disruptions to global supply chains, and strained international relations. Policymakers must carefully weigh the short-term benefits of tariffs against their long-term economic and geopolitical costs.

Analysis of the trade wars between the US and Canada, Mexico and China: What are the possible consequences that could ensue with new trade tariffs originating from the US?

ChatGPT said:

Analysis of US Trade Wars with Canada, Mexico, and China

Trade wars between the United States and its key trading partners—Canada, Mexico, and China—have been ongoing for years, particularly since the Trump administration imposed tariffs under the guise of national security and economic protectionism. The Biden administration has continued to maintain certain tariffs, while also engaging in negotiations to resolve trade disputes.

With the potential introduction of new tariffs, the consequences for global trade, economic growth, and geopolitical stability could be significant.

1. US-Canada Trade War

Background

  • Canada is the US’s largest trading partner, and the two economies are deeply integrated, particularly in sectors such as automotive, agriculture, and energy.
  • Previous disputes have involved softwood lumber, dairy, and aluminium/steel tariffs imposed under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act.

Potential Consequences of New US Tariffs

  1. Higher Consumer Prices: If tariffs are placed on key imports like aluminium or timber, costs for US manufacturers and consumers will rise.
  2. Retaliatory Tariffs: Canada may respond by imposing its own tariffs on American goods, particularly agricultural products, impacting US farmers.
  3. Disruptions in Supply Chains: Canada is a key supplier of raw materials for US industries. Tariffs could lead to delays and increased costs.
  4. Increased Protectionism: A resurgence of tariffs could weaken trade cooperation within USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), potentially leading to renegotiations.

2. US-Mexico Trade War

Background

  • Mexico is the US’s second-largest trading partner, particularly in manufacturing, automotive, and agriculture.
  • The US has previously imposed tariffs on Mexican steel and threatened tariffs over immigration concerns.

Potential Consequences of New US Tariffs

  1. Disruptions to the Auto Industry: Mexico is a major supplier of car parts and assembled vehicles to the US. Tariffs would increase costs for American automakers, potentially reducing competitiveness.
  2. Inflationary Pressures: The US imports large amounts of food, electronics, and textiles from Mexico. Tariffs could increase the cost of goods, fuelling inflation.
  3. Supply Chain Shifts: US businesses may accelerate moves to relocate production from Mexico to other regions (e.g., Southeast Asia) to avoid tariffs.
  4. Impact on USMCA: New tariffs could undermine the spirit of the USMCA, leading to disputes over trade compliance and possible retaliation from Mexico.

3. US-China Trade War

Background

  • The US-China trade war, which escalated in 2018, resulted in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs on goods.
  • Despite some agreements, tensions remain high, particularly in technology, semiconductors, and intellectual property.

Potential Consequences of New US Tariffs

  1. Global Economic Slowdown: Tariffs on China would have far-reaching consequences, impacting global markets, supply chains, and economic growth.
  2. Increased Costs for US Consumers: Many US companies rely on Chinese manufacturing. Higher tariffs would raise prices for electronics, machinery, and consumer goods.
  3. Retaliation from China: China may respond with its own tariffs on US goods such as agriculture, energy, and technology, impacting American exports.
  4. Acceleration of Decoupling: Companies may shift production away from China to countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico, potentially reshaping global trade patterns.
  5. Geopolitical Tensions: Further economic friction could escalate into broader geopolitical conflicts, including restrictions on technology exports and investment barriers.

Broader Economic and Geopolitical Consequences

  • Supply Chain Realignments: Companies may further diversify supply chains to avoid tariff risks, strengthening manufacturing hubs outside the US.
  • Market Uncertainty: Stock markets may react negatively to trade tensions, leading to volatility in financial markets.
  • Weakened Global Trade Cooperation: Prolonged trade wars could erode trust in multilateral trade agreements and organisations such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
  • Impact on Inflation and Interest Rates: Increased costs for businesses and consumers could contribute to inflation, forcing central banks to adjust interest rate policies.

Conclusion

The introduction of new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could lead to significant economic disruptions, supply chain shifts, and geopolitical instability. While protectionist policies may offer short-term gains for certain domestic industries, the long-term effects could result in higher consumer prices, reduced economic growth, and strained diplomatic relations.

Would you like a more detailed analysis of any specific sector or a breakdown of possible mitigation strategies?

“Compare this answer to your answer to the previous question and analyse, in a concise manner, any contradictions, bias and ideological differences between the two answers. Was there mutual agreement about the facts? What are the possible consequences that could ensue with new trade tariffs?”

Reasoned for 11 seconds

Below is a concise comparative analysis between the two answers:

Mutual Agreement on the Facts

  • Core Observations:
    Both answers agree that new U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are likely to result in retaliatory measures, supply chain disruptions, higher consumer prices, and broader economic uncertainty. They each note that these tariffs affect key sectors (such as automotive, agriculture, technology, and manufacturing) and that the trade wars carry long-term geopolitical risks.
  • Consequences Outlined:
    Each answer highlights similar potential outcomes:
    • For Canada: Disruptions in integrated supply chains, economic slowdown, and political strain.
    • For Mexico: Increased costs for U.S. consumers, potential migration pressures, and retaliatory tariffs affecting U.S. agriculture.
    • For China: Global supply chain issues, inflationary pressures, technological decoupling, and a possible shift in trade alliances.

Contradictions

  • Factual Consistency:
    There are no significant factual contradictions between the two responses. Both provide a coherent narrative that U.S. protectionist measures, while intended to support domestic industries, may have adverse ripple effects globally.

Bias and Ideological Differences

  • Tone and Emphasis:
    • The provided answer explicitly discusses the erosion of the rules-based global trading system and long-term implications such as technological decoupling and shifting global economic power. This framing emphasises the systemic risks of protectionism.
    • The previous answer (from earlier responses) offers a balanced, sector-focused breakdown of immediate economic and geopolitical consequences without strongly emphasising the ideological critique of the global trading system.
  • Ideological Nuance:
    Both responses share a broadly conventional economic perspective—that while tariffs might offer short-term protection for domestic industries, they can lead to higher costs, market uncertainty, and diplomatic tensions. Any difference is more about the depth of long-term systemic critique rather than a fundamental ideological divide.

Conclusion

In summary, both answers mutually agree on the essential facts and likely consequences of new U.S. tariffs. They present a consistent view that such measures can lead to retaliatory actions, economic disruptions, and geopolitical strains. While the provided answer places a slightly greater emphasis on the erosion of multilateral trade systems and long-term shifts in global economic power, neither response shows significant bias or contradiction—the core analysis remains aligned.

This content analysis took me by surprise especially by the proximity of the answers which seem to indicate that the answers are derived more from logic rather than geographical allegiance. Hopefully that is the case and I will keep testing and probing to find the deepest secrets.

If you have tried any similar experiments I would love to hear about them in the comments below.

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