An AI Guide To AI

“As the global demand for energy and technology continues to grow, competition for control of these critical resources is likely to remain a driving force behind many geopolitical conflicts” Chat Gpt 4o

Sometimes we tend to stray from the project at hand. With the war drums banging away their deadly rhythm and news of attacks and invasions of sovereign countries becoming a daily occurrence it is natural to wonder the causes of so much grief. The spectre of another world war suddenly seems not only possible but scarily imminent.

One pet theory I harbour is that underlying all the conflict is a struggle between the World’s superpowers to secure dwindling supplies of energy fuels and rare metals. Territorial and religious tensions are invoked to provoke escalation of conflicts between proxy countries to hide the real causes of the strife.

I ask Chat GPT its opinion on the matter:

Can you describe the current conflicts in the Middle East as energy wars?

ChatGPT said:

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially those related to countries like Israel, Palestine, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and surrounding regions, can be partially framed as “energy wars” because of the geopolitical importance of the region’s vast oil and gas resources. However, it is crucial to recognise that the conflict has deep, complex roots, including religious, territorial, and political issues that go beyond energy alone.

That said, here are key ways in which energy dynamics contribute to the regional conflict:

1. Oil and Gas Wealth

The Middle East holds some of the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas, which makes it a critical energy supplier globally. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and others are major producers, and control over these resources has historically been a source of power and influence. Countries outside the region, including the U.S., Russia, and China, have significant strategic interests in securing access to this energy.

2. Competition for Regional Influence

Major regional players like Saudi Arabia and Iran compete for political and economic dominance, partly through control of energy supply routes. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority nation, and Iran, a Shia-majority nation, have engaged in proxy wars (e.g., in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon) partly fuelled by the desire to control political influence and, by extension, access to energy markets.

3. Energy and Western Involvement

Western powers, particularly the U.S., have long been involved in Middle Eastern politics to secure access to energy. The Gulf Wars, for instance, had significant energy-related undertones, as Iraq under Saddam Hussein threatened oil supply lines. U.S. alliances with Saudi Arabia and opposition to Iran’s influence are often viewed through the lens of energy security.

4. Israel-Palestine Conflict

While the Israel-Palestine conflict itself is primarily about land, national identity, and religion, broader regional energy dynamics play into the politics of support and opposition surrounding it. Israel has discovered natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, further complicating the region’s energy geopolitics. Israel’s gas resources give it leverage, while the broader Arab-Israeli tensions are influenced by regional energy politics, particularly concerning alliances and trade.

5. Control over Shipping Routes

Control over key shipping lanes, such as the Strait of Hormuz (through which a significant portion of the world’s oil passes), adds another layer to the energy wars narrative. Iran’s strategic location on the Strait allows it to potentially control access to a large percentage of global oil, giving it leverage in geopolitical conflicts.

6. The Transition to Renewable Energy

As the world increasingly shifts towards renewable energy, some Middle Eastern countries are investing in alternatives, but they remain heavily reliant on oil and gas. The fight to secure markets and maintain economic relevance in a changing energy landscape adds another dimension to the existing conflicts. Additionally, competition for new energy resources, such as rare earth minerals crucial for green technology, may shape future conflicts in the region.

Conclusion

While energy is a crucial factor in the Middle Eastern conflicts, it is not the sole driver. The term “energy wars” only partially captures the situation, as historical grievances, religious divisions, and territorial disputes are equally, if not more, significant. Energy control amplifies these conflicts by providing both a source of power and a reason for external involvement. Thus, while many regional conflicts may be influenced by energy competition, the Middle East’s geopolitical complexities extend beyond the pursuit of oil and gas.

4o

You said:

Would it be fair to say that most of the current conflicts today are centred around locations which possess generous supplies of oil, gas and rare earth minerals?

ChatGPT said:

Yes, it is fair to say that many of the world’s current conflicts are centred around locations that have generous supplies of oil, gas, and rare earth minerals. These resources are essential to the global economy, driving not only energy production but also modern technologies such as electronics, batteries, and renewable energy infrastructure. Consequently, countries with abundant natural resources often become focal points for geopolitical tensions, both within their borders and in the wider international sphere.

Here are several ways in which conflicts are linked to the availability of these resources:

1. Oil and Gas Conflicts

• Middle East: As mentioned earlier, the Middle East holds a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas reserves. Conflicts in countries like Iraq, Syria, and Libya are often tied to control over these resources. The Gulf Wars, proxy wars in Syria and Yemen, and ongoing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have energy dynamics at their core.
• Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Russia’s vast natural gas reserves and its role as a major supplier to Europe is a critical factor in its geopolitical power. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine brought energy into sharp focus, with Europe’s reliance on Russian gas causing economic and political vulnerabilities. Control over gas pipelines and access to energy infrastructure has been a key element in the conflict.
• Venezuela: Venezuela, home to some of the largest proven oil reserves in the world, has faced both internal strife and external pressure due to its energy resources. Economic collapse, political instability, and international sanctions are partly rooted in the country’s oil wealth.

2. Rare Earth Mineral Conflicts

• Africa: Africa is rich in rare earth minerals, essential for high-tech devices, electric vehicles, and renewable energy technologies. Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which holds a large share of the world’s cobalt reserves, have been mired in conflicts involving resource extraction. These conflicts often involve foreign companies, governments, and militias vying for control over mineral-rich areas.
• Afghanistan: Afghanistan’s conflict is often viewed through the lens of geopolitics and terrorism, but it also has vast reserves of untapped rare earth minerals, estimated to be worth trillions of dollars. Lithium, crucial for batteries in electric vehicles and renewable energy, is among the resources that make the country strategically valuable in the long term.
• South China Sea: The disputed waters of the South China Sea are thought to contain significant oil and gas reserves, as well as access to important shipping lanes. The territorial claims made by China and other Southeast Asian nations are partly motivated by the desire to control these resources, alongside strategic military concerns.

3. Energy Transition and Resource Conflicts

• The global shift towards renewable energy technologies, such as solar, wind, and electric vehicles, has increased the demand for specific resources like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth minerals. As countries and corporations race to secure these materials, resource-rich regions, particularly in developing nations, become hotspots for conflict, exploitation, and political instability.
• Green Colonialism: Some experts have raised concerns about “green colonialism,” where resource-rich but politically unstable countries are exploited by powerful nations or corporations seeking the minerals required for clean energy technologies. This dynamic can create new conflicts or exacerbate existing ones.

4. Pipeline Politics

Control over pipelines, which transport oil and gas, has also been a source of conflict. For example, disputes over pipeline routes in the Caucasus and Central Asia (e.g., Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia) often have an energy dimension, as these pipelines are key to transporting energy to Europe and Asia. Similarly, the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia and Europe have been the centre of geopolitical wrangling (and sabotage. Edit).

Conclusion

Many of today’s conflicts are indeed centred around locations with abundant oil, gas, and rare earth minerals. While these resources are not always the sole cause of conflict, they often exacerbate tensions and serve as powerful motivators for both internal strife and external intervention. As the global demand for energy and technology continues to grow, competition for control of these critical resources is likely to remain a driving force behind many geopolitical conflicts.

My tentative theory seems to hold at least some water. Usually optimistic in outlook I hope for the best but can’t help thinking of the tens of thousand civilian victims these conflicts have already claimed and the millions displaced from their land. We can only hope that common sense prevails but that is a tall order